Bitcoin could crash to $48,000, if this historical pattern is triggered
Key takeaways
- With bitcoin’s latest peak above $126,000, that 61.8% retracement now sits around $48,215, implying prices could fall sharply from current levels near $64,000 if the historical pattern holds.
- Draw Fibonacci retracements from near zero – BTC began trading at $0.003 in February 2010 – to bull market peaks reached in June 2011, November 2013, December 2017, and November 2021.
- The bear markets that followed these peaks saw prices crash well below the 61.8% retracement of the entire move from near zero to the bull peaks.
With bitcoin’s latest peak above $126,000, that 61.8% retracement now sits around $48,215, implying prices could fall sharply from current levels near $64,000 if the historical pattern holds. Bitcoin BTC$63 715,70 has a unique pattern, and it has held across every major bullish cycle since the cryptocurrency began trading near zero 16 years ago. This pattern suggests that prices could crash to at least $48,000.
The pattern works like this. Draw Fibonacci retracements from near zero – BTC began trading at $0.003 in February 2010 – to bull market peaks reached in June 2011, November 2013, December 2017, and November 2021.
The bear markets that followed these peaks saw prices crash well below the 61.8% retracement of the entire move from near zero to the bull peaks. This has happened every time, as seen in the charts below.