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Kalshi puts Paxton odds in Texas GOP primary at 95 percent
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Kalshi puts Paxton odds in Texas GOP primary at 95 percent

The Hill · May 24, 2026, 6:27 PM · Also reported by 4 other sources

Key takeaways

  • John Cornyn (R-Texas) in the Lone Star State s Senate GOP runoff, according to the prediction market Kalshi.
  • As of Sunday afternoon, Paxton had a 95.6 percent chance of winning the runoff, which will be decided on Tuesday after a bitter campaign between the firebrand attorney general and the four-term incumbent senator Cornyn.
  • Cornyn, meanwhile, has just a 4.4 percent chance of winning the nomination and the right to take on Democratic nominee state Rep.

Why this matters: political developments that affect policy direction and public trust.

John Cornyn (R-Texas) in the Lone Star State s Senate GOP runoff, according to the prediction market Kalshi.

As of Sunday afternoon, Paxton had a 95.6 percent chance of winning the runoff, which will be decided on Tuesday after a bitter campaign between the firebrand attorney general and the four-term incumbent senator Cornyn.

Cornyn, meanwhile, has just a 4.4 percent chance of winning the nomination and the right to take on Democratic nominee state Rep. James Talarico in the general election.

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