politics
Health insurance marketplace feels growing tremors from GOP cuts
Key takeaways
- Insurers and analysts think there s been much more attrition since then and are projecting that enrollment could fall by as much as a quarter this year.
- Enrollment in HealthCare.gov dropped by nearly 8 percent compared with final 2025 enrollment, while state-based exchanges grew by 2 percent, according to an analysis by consulting firm Oliver Wyman.
- At the same time, new consumer enrollment fell by 14 percent, compared with just a 3 percent drop among returning enrollees.
Why this matters: political developments that affect policy direction and public trust.
Experts and state officials say the impact varies from state to state, but enrollment decline is expected to grow this year and beyond, as policies from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and potential Trump administration regulation changes take effect.
According to preliminary data released by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) earlier this year, total Affordable Care Act (ACA) enrollment for 2026 fell to about 23 million people, a drop of a little more than 1 million enrollees.
Insurers and analysts think there s been much more attrition since then and are projecting that enrollment could fall by as much as a quarter this year.
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