Futarchy is not secure without a proposal gatekeeper

Asset futarchy is attractive because it lets markets compare a proposal's expected effect on token value. That comparison is only reliable when conditional prices track the proposal's causal effect rather than strategic behavior around the decision rule. The attacks below describe ways a proposer can make PASS-ASSET trade above FAIL-ASSET without creating commensurate value for ASSET holders. They are defensive mechanism-design examples: each one identifies a coupling failure between the conditional market price and the proposal's true expected effect. The mitigations also imply a current limitation: robust asset futarchy cannot be fully permissionless and autonomous. Manual gating requires reviewers, and some penalties require them to judge whether proposal terms were abusive. That review layer becomes a trusted governance surface: reviewers can allow their own malicious proposals to pass while blocking counter-proposals. The defenses below therefore replace some market attacks with a centralisation assumption rather than removing governance risk. Asset futarchy here means a governance system where a proposal passes if conditional markets predict ASSET will be worth more if the proposal passes than if it fails. PASS-ASSET is ASSET in the world where the proposal passes. FAIL-ASSET is ASSET in the world where it fails. The important feature here is that relative conditional prices decide execution. +EV means a proposal increases expected ASSET value, and -EV means it decreases expected ASSET value. The examples below assume a 2% passage hurdle: PASS-ASSET must trade at least 2% above FAIL-ASSET for the proposal to pass. Resistance-Contingent Delivery A proposer promises value-creating work, but treats delivery as the backup plan. Their first choice is to pass the proposal by defending the PASS/FAIL spread, collect the proposal payout, and skip the work. Example: a proposer asks the DAO to pay $300k for a wallet distribution partnership. The partnership is +EV to the