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Losing the War of the Future
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Losing the War of the Future

Foreign Affairs · Jun 23, 2026, 4:00 AM

Key takeaways

  • How New Technologies Threaten America’s Military Advantage
  • In its recent campaign against Iran, the United States dominated the skies using its traditional airpower.
  • The technological dominance that the U.S. military has long counted on to give it an advantage over competitors is waning.

How New Technologies Threaten America’s Military Advantage

In its recent campaign against Iran, the United States dominated the skies using its traditional airpower. The U.S. military pounded Iranian targets, conducting over 13,000 strikes. That prowess and devastating firepower did not stop Iran from hitting back. Over the course of the 39-day conflict that began on February 28 and stopped on April 8, Iran launched over 2,200 missiles and 4,400 drones against countries in the region. At least eight U.S. aircraft were destroyed or damaged by Iranian attacks. Multiple U.S. radars were hit, and seven U.S. service members were killed. And at the time of this writing, the Iranian regime remains in place and maintains a stranglehold over the Strait of Hormuz. The United States has not achieved its objectives in the war, even though it is by every metric far more powerful than Iran.

The technological dominance that the U.S. military has long counted on to give it an advantage over competitors is waning. Unlike in past eras, when the United States maintained major leads in stealth and precision-guided weapons, the current age will not afford the United States an advantage in the technologies that are now transforming warfare: drones and artificial intelligence.

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