First Monsoon Spell to Hit Punjab, Azad Kashmir From July 1

Pakistan’s monsoon season is expected to begin on July 1, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department. The PMD said the first monsoon system will initially impact northeastern parts of the country, particularly Punjab and Azad Kashmir, with rain also forecast for northern regions and northeastern Punjab starting July 1. Other parts of the country, including Sindh, will likely remain dry for the next several days. However, a developing low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal could alter weather patterns in Sindh, including Karachi, increasing the possibility of rainfall later. Despite this, several areas of Sindh, including Karachi, are projected to receive below-average rainfall during the upcoming monsoon period. According to the Met Office, the strongest likelihood of hotter-than-usual weather exists across southern parts of the country, stretching from eastern Balochistan and western Sindh toward central Punjab. For June, the department expects rainfall across the country to remain near normal or slightly below average. Forecast models indicate that southern regions, particularly much of Sindh, are more likely to experience rainfall near seasonal norms, although precipitation levels may vary significantly across locations. In its monthly outlook, the PMD warned that above-normal temperatures could intensify heat conditions and increase the risk of prolonged heatwaves, especially in the plains of Sindh, Punjab and Balochistan. Lower-than-normal rainfall could further worsen heat-related conditions in these areas. Despite forecasts of reduced rainfall, the PMD cautioned that isolated heavy showers may still occur and could lead to urban flooding in major cities, particularly in low-lying neighbourhoods and areas with poor drainage systems. Pakistan likely to face hotter summer, reduced rainfall