Is SpaceX worth $1.75 trillion?

Analysis written by Van Ha Trinh, Financial Markets Analyst at Exness. The most interesting aspect of this IPO may not be what Space X has built. It is the fact that two rational, informed traders study the same prospectus and arrive at valuations nearly a trillion dollars apart. That tension is the story. Because nobody can agree whether it is visionary or delusional, and the gap between those two positions is measured in hundreds of billions of dollars. What the Prospectus Actually Reveals SpaceX declares it has identified the largest actionable Total Addressable Market (TAM) in human history and then quantifies it at $28.5 trillion. Source: SpaceX Form S-1, Exness The chart tells you everything about how SpaceX wants to be seen: ● Space (launch, satellites, exploration): $370 billion ~ 1.30% ● Connectivity (Starlink broadband + mobile): $1.6 trillion ~ 5.62% ● AI (infrastructure, consumer, advertising, enterprise): $26.5 trillion ~ 93.08% The internal composition of that TAM is where it gets truly audacious. Of the $28.5 trillion total, $26.5 trillion nearly 90% of the entire figure is attributed to xAi alone. Not rockets. Not Starlink. A category SpaceX did not compete in until it absorbed xAI six months ago. Now here is where the GDP comparison becomes the most useful analytical lens available. $28.5 trillion is almost exactly the annual GDP of the United States, the largest economy on Earth, representing roughly 25% of all global economic output. Put differently, SpaceX is claiming it has identified a market opportunity equal in size to every good and service produced by 335 million Americans in an entire year. Global GDP sits at approximately $110 trillion. SpaceX’s claimed TAM represents roughly 26% of the entire world’s annual economic output, and that is excluding China and Russia. The TAM is not the problem. TAMs are always aspirational. The problem is the implied capture rate baked into the IPO price and whether a company that generated $18.7