The Afghanistan-Pakistan Border Is Still Unstable

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief. The highlights this week: Calm sets in along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border after months of violence, Bangladesh records 1,300 new cases in a deadly measles outbreak, and India’s satirical Cockroach Janta Party plans to hold its first protest. Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief. The highlights this week: Calm sets in along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border after months of violence, Bangladesh records 1,300 new cases in a deadly measles outbreak, and India’s satirical Cockroach Janta Party plans to hold its first protest. A relative calm has set in along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, following heavy violence in recent months from both sides. The fighting is rooted in Pakistan’s contention that the regime is sheltering Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants who carry out attacks in Pakistan. The respite in violence may raise hopes that the border conflict is coming to an end. This week, Pakistan’s Express Tribune reported that Taliban Supreme Leader Hibatullah Akhundzada had issued a warning to the TTP that the Taliban will cut off its support if the group doesn’t halt its attacks in Pakistan. However, the crisis is far from over—and it could easily boil over again. Akhundzada’s reported warning won’t appease Pakistani officials, who have long argued that the Taliban are unwilling to agree to verification mechanisms that prove the group is in fact curbing the TTP. Islamabad will likely shrug off the remarks as an empty gesture. Another Taliban move might deepen tensions. Last week, Afghanistan signed a military cooperation agreement with Russia. Little information was made public about the deal, but according to Russia’s special envoy for Afghanistan, it mainly concerns repairs to Russian-made equipment. Pakistan, though, will worry the Taliban will use the accord with Russia to bolster their capacity to inflict more damage in future conflicts. More broadly, the Taliban have few incentives to implement Pakistan’s core demand. The group is closely allied with the TTP, and it has a track record of not turning on its friends—including al Qaeda when threatened by U.S. military intervention. The Taliban could also face risks if they crack down, from internal rebellions to TTP members joining the Islamic State-Khorasan. This helps explain why multiple rounds of internationally mediated talks have secured cease-fires but no formal commitment from the Taliban to curb the TTP. This includes the most recent round in April, mediated by China, which has considerable leverage over the Taliban because of its investment capital. The Iran war is likely a key factor. Pakistan, a prime mediator in that conflict, wants to avoid new provocations along its border with Afghanistan at a critical moment in U.S.-Iran talks. Given that Afghanistan, like Pakistan, shares a border with Iran, the Taliban also want to avoid waging one conflict while grappling with spillover effects from another. But the lull is likely temporary. Pakistan, which has taken on a greater diplomatic role thanks to its mediation on Iran, is unlikely to receive much international pushback if it resumes strikes on Afghanistan. The Taliban will be prepared to retaliate. (The United States and the European Union have expressed support for Pakistan’s right to defend itself.) Pakistan may have been the Taliban’s patron during the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan, but tensions are now dangerously high. Mutual trust is undercut by long-standing disagreements, such as Afghanistan’s refusal to formally recognize their shared border. Ultimately, a depressing cycle is likely to continue: Fresh violence will result in more internationally mediated talks, which get both sides to recommit to a cease-fire. But without an agreement that addresses the drivers of the violence, fighting will resume once again. Measles outbreak in Bangladesh. Over the weekend, Bangladesh tallied more than 1,300 new measles cases, bringing the total figure to nearly 71,000 since an outbreak began in March. There have been 585 deaths. Most of those stricken have been children, with four out of five cases among those under 5 years old. (Children have also accounted for most deaths.) Public health experts have faulted the interim government that led Bangladesh from August 2024 until February for failing to maintain a robust vaccination campaign overseen by the previous administration. The UNICEF representative in Bangladesh, Rana Flowers, told reporters last month that she had warned interim government officials of her concern “on at least 10 occasions.” The new government led by Prime Minister Tarique Rahman launched a campaign in April to vaccinate 20 million children, but so far only the first of two required doses has been administered. Indian movement to hold first protest. The satirical Cockroach Janta Party, an online movement that has taken India’s social media by storm, soon plans to hold its first offline protest. The

The Afghanistan-Pakistan Border Is Still Unstable

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