Is a Democrat-majority Senate a good bet in the midterms?
Key takeaways
- It s not an overwhelming consensus, as most believe Republicans will only scrape by.
- The betting markets disagree, but in a strange way.
- Those ratings are good news for Democrats, as very rarely does the party out of power lose an incumbent or open seat to the party holding the White House.
Why this matters: political developments that affect policy direction and public trust.
It s not an overwhelming consensus, as most believe Republicans will only scrape by.
The betting markets disagree, but in a strange way. As of this writing, two of the most cited national ratings have the partisan balance in doubt. The Cook Political Report s Senate ratings have Democrats gaining one seat, with three toss-up races (Maine, Michigan and Ohio), for a 49-48 lead for Republicans. RealClearPolitics is historically more cautious about calling races, and this midterm is no exception. It has eight toss-ups, but it has North Carolina leaning toward the Democrats.
Those ratings are good news for Democrats, as very rarely does the party out of power lose an incumbent or open seat to the party holding the White House. If that holds, Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire will stay in the Democratic column. That would shift the RealClearPolitics map to 48 for the Democrats and 47 for the Republicans.