A political nerd’s guide to Britain’s by-election

For a few seismic days this summer, a scattering of towns and villages in the north of England will become the center of the political world. The Makerfield parliamentary by-election on June 18 is an improbable setting for a political earthquake. By-elections — the British equivalent of a U.S. special election — are held when a member of Parliament resigns, dies or (this being Britain) becomes so enmeshed in tabloid scandal that they are flung out of office by angry voters. There are usually a handful each year, and they tend to be of fleeting political interest — offering a brief snapshot of public sentiment. Turnout is generally low. Governing parties tend to do poorly. Sometimes a seat changes hands — but with 650 members of Parliament, a single by-election rarely constitutes a significant shift in power. Most are quickly forgotten. Makerfield is different, in every sense. Here, a few thousand voters in this proudly unglamorous corner of England will choose the future direction of the U.K. The reason why lies 200 miles away in Westminster, where Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour government is on its knees. Starmer has had a miserable time since winning a landslide general election two years ago. He is historically unpopular, and Labour has collapsed in the polls. Many in the party want a change of leader, with Nigel Farage’s populist-right Reform Party on the march and threatening to sweep to power at the next general election, currently expected in 2029. But the most viable candidate to take over from Starmer — the most popular figure by far with grassroots Labour Party members — is not an MP at all. Andy Burnham is a former Labour Cabinet minister, but quit Westminster almost a decade ago to become the Mayor of Greater Manchester. He now oversees England’s second city, and a surrounding region of 2.8 million people — roughly the size of Baltimore and its wider metropolitan area. It has proved an enviable power base. Burnham, 56, has a populist touch many fee