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The AI industry is where banking was in 2006. (We're hiring)

LessWrong · May 7, 2026, 9:52 PM

TL;DR; Ce SIA, the French Center for AI Safety is recruiting. French not necessary. Apply by 22 May 2026; Paris or remote in Europe/UK.On August 27, 2005, at an annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Raghuram Rajan, then chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, argued in front of central bank governors and top officials that the innovations of the previous decade in banking had not made the world safer. The financial instruments built over the previous decade, he argued, had become so intricate that even their creators no longer fully understood the risks they carried. Risk had migrated to institutions the supervisory system was not designed to watch. And the people running those institutions were compensated in ways that rewarded short-term performance over long-term stability.The reception was hostile. Lawrence Summers, a former U.S. Treasury Secretary at the time, rose from the audience to attack the paper, calling its premise "slightly Luddite" and "largely misguided," and warning that the kind of changes Rajan argued for would only reduce the productivity of the financial sector.Three years after Jackson Hole, major banks collapsed, first Bear Stearns, then Lehman Brothers, then Merrill Lynch, then AIG. The post-mortem concluded that the failures had been structural rather than personal. Capital requirements, the share of the bank's own money it must keep on hand to absorb losses, were calibrated by banks against statistical models of their own design. They were under a voluntary supervision program where supervisors could examine books but had no power to compel changes. The credit rating agencies, whose grades decided which investors could buy a given financial product and at what price, were paid by the firms whose products it was grading. And the regulatory perimeter was drawn by lobbying.Each of these had been visible, and named, before the crisis. None had been corrected. Twenty years later, the same is happening with AI.At CeSIA, our goal over the n

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