'Panicked' Putin has big decision to make, and 'could go nuclear'

Analysts say Vladimir Putin is under pressure to respond to Ukraine's attacks on Crimea. (Reuters: Anastasia Barashkova) Link copiedShareShare articleIt has been described as Vladimir Putin's jewel, but right now, Crimea has become one of his biggest vulnerabilities. The peninsula was once a symbol of the Russian president's authoritarian muscle. Ignoring a chorus of Western condemnation, he ordered his military to annex it from Ukraine in 2014. It took less than four weeks for the Kremlin's forces to occupy the territory. "This sparked a wave of nationalistic fervour and approval in Russia," said Jenny Mathers, a senior lecturer in international politics at Aberystwyth University. "The phrase 'Crimea is ours' became very popular. They even put it on fridge magnets." But 12 years later, there is panic on the peninsula, where a state of emergency was last week declared. Some analysts believe the fate of this piece of land could prove pivotal to Putin's hold on power. People use torches to navigate a dark street during a power outage in Crimea on Wednesday. (Reuters: Alexey Pavlishak) Despite being more than 200 kilometres behind the front lines in Ukraine, war has arrived in Crimea once again. Kyiv has developed cheap, medium-range drones capable of evading Russia's forces. Sustained attacks on oil refineries and other infrastructure are having a major effect on life there. The price of fuel has skyrocketed. Blackouts have become widespread. The highways that once linked Russia and Crimea are now littered with destroyed military vehicles and fuel tankers, which have been among Ukraine's most popular targets. Petrol is now in such short supply on the peninsula, civilians require special permission to fill up, if they can even find it. "As a driver, I am not happy about the current situation. I do understand that it is a forced measure, but surely, I cannot say that I am happy," Pyotr, a resident of Crimea's largest city, Sevastopol, told the Reuters news agency this week, while he was out searching for fuel. Petrol is becoming very difficult to find in Crimea. (Reuters: Alexey Pavlishak) One of the reasons fuel has become scarce is because of Ukraine's increasing ability to target critical logistics routes, which had connected Russia's internationally recognised borders with Crimea. Not only are they used to supply petrol to civilians on the peninsula, they had served as critical arteries to get troops and supplies to Moscow's forces on the front lines in Ukraine. While Russia does have another link with Crimea, the 19km Kerch Bridge, it has also been a regular target of Ukraine's over the course of the war. Crimea has become a popular holiday destination for Russians since it was annexed. Federal authorities have also encouraged citizens from other parts of the country to relocate there. Last year, an estimated 7 million tourists flocked to the peninsula, which is known for its warm climate, natural beauty, and Black Sea beaches. Now, it has become too dangerous to visit. Many Russians who were largely unaffected by their country's full-scale invasion in February 2022 — something the Kremlin propaganda machine refers to as a "special military operation" — have been inconvenienced. Last week, the Russian-installed government in Crimea declared a state of emergency, in what many analysts are interpreting as a major win for Ukraine. Nikolai Petrov, a senior research fellow and expert in Russian domestic politics at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre, described the current situation in Crimea as "a nightmare for the Kremlin". "It transforms the special military operation into a real war [for Russian citizens]," he said, during an online discussion hosted by the think tank last week. Professor Petrov, who was born in Crimea and has worked as an academic in Moscow, described the situation on the peninsula as a "personal humiliation for Putin" that could serve "as a game changer". "It's not clear exactly how authorities will deal with this," he said. Dr Mathers said Ukraine's attacks were clearly having an effect. "At the moment, it's not looking good for Russia," she said. "It certainly puts Russia on the back foot in lots of ways." Drone footage shows fire and smoke rising from a building in Crimea after a Ukrainian attack in June. (Telegram: Robert Brovdi via Reuters) Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced he had authorised a 40-day operation, involving increased attacks on Russia, in a bid to pressure Putin into negotiating a peace deal. The Kremlin has not budged publicly from its maximalist set of demands to end the war, which includes it being handed territory it does not currently occupy. Ukraine maintains this is unacceptable. On Wednesday, the country's Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said striking Crimea was "an important goal" for his government. "Crimea has become a military base for the Russians to continue their occupation of the south of our c

'Panicked' Putin has big decision to make, and 'could go nuclear'

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