The UK Economy Looks Great on Paper, But Questions Are Mounting
Key takeaways
- The problem is that the same thing happens every Q1, and it always turns out to be wrong.
- GDP figures due next week are expected to show the UK economy grew around 0.5% to 0.6% in the first quarter of 2026, a sharp rebound from the 0.1% expansion in Q4 2025 and the fastest quarterly growth since early 2025.
- In practice, almost nobody thinks it reflects what is actually happening in the economy.
The UK Economy Looks Great on Paper, But Questions Are Mounting Mark Nichols Thu, May 7, 2026 at 11:43 PM GMT+7 9 min read %5EFTSE The UK Economy Looks Great on Paper, But Questions Are Mounting - Moby THE GIST The UK is about to report its fastest quarterly growth in over a year. The problem is that the same thing happens every Q1, and it always turns out to be wrong. This time, with the Iran war already battering the economy, the stakes for getting the data right are unusually high.
GDP figures due next week are expected to show the UK economy grew around 0.5% to 0.6% in the first quarter of 2026, a sharp rebound from the 0.1% expansion in Q4 2025 and the fastest quarterly growth since early 2025. February alone saw its biggest monthly rise in more than two years, driven by a surge in activity before the Iran war broke out.
On the surface, that looks encouraging. In practice, almost nobody thinks it reflects what is actually happening in the economy.