A new cold war beneath the waves

THE world has, in a way, stepped back into a new Cold War era. This time, however, the competition for power and global dominance is not just ideological, it is sharply centred around economics, trade routes and strategic chokepoints, with the United States and China at the core of this rivalry. The United States became the world’s largest economy after overtaking the British Empire in 1890. By the 1960s, its industrial output accounted for nearly 36% of global production. But the global balance has shifted significantly since then. Today, while the US economy is valued at around $31.8 trillion, China has risen rapidly to about $20.6 trillion, emerging as a serious industrial and economic rival. What makes this competition even more important is growth momentum. In 2025, China’s growth rate stood at around 5%, compared to 2.2% for the United States. In simple terms, if these trends continue, China could overtake the US as the world’s largest economy by around 2030. This shift reflects a broader reality: the US is no longer matching China’s pace of industrial expansion. Instead of competing purely on growth, Washington is increasingly seen as focusing on limiting China’s rise. Rather than matching China step-by-step economically, the US is reportedly working to slow its expansion through strategic pressure; especially by targeting global supply chains and maritime routes. This approach is often described as a form of “global maritime containment strategy,” aimed at surrounding China through key sea lanes. Recent tensions in the Strait of Hormuz offered what many policymakers in Washington reportedly viewed as a real-world lesson. When Iran threatened to close the strait, roughly 20% of global oil shipments were at risk. Oil prices surged and global markets reacted immediately. For the US, this was more than a regional crisis — it was a demonstration of how control over a narrow maritime passage can shake the global economy. The takeaway was clear: modern power does n