Will Pakistan’s Iran Gamble Pay Off?

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief. The highlights this week: Pakistan hopes to capitalize on the success of its Iran mediation efforts, Bangladeshi Prime Minister Tarique Rahman makes a significant trip to China, and Indian Home Minister Amit Shah has a rare meeting with the U.S. ambassador in New Delhi. Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief. The highlights this week: Pakistan hopes to capitalize on the success of its Iran mediation efforts, Bangladeshi Prime Minister Tarique Rahman makes a significant trip to China, and Indian Home Minister Amit Shah has a rare meeting with the U.S. ambassador in New Delhi. When the United States and Iran reached a framework peace deal this month, one of the first public announcements came from Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. The agreement capped weeks of mediation by Pakistan, which has long sought to convince the world that it is an influential and positive player on the global stage. The question is if Islamabad can capitalize on its newfound prominence. Pakistan is the world’s fifth-most populous country, and it occupies strategic real estate as a gateway to both the Middle East and East Asia. But it has limited leverage: It’s not a major economy and doesn’t boast a critical global export, such as oil or microchips. Further, U.S. President Donald Trump’s backing, which helped Pakistan secure its chief mediator role, may not last. Trump is notoriously fickle and might conclude that Islamabad’s utility isn’t so great, especially if conflict in the Middle East winds down and commercial opportunities in Pakistan (like those concerning critical minerals) don’t pan out. Pakistan also risks being crowded out by more significant global actors. For example, enduring peace in the Middle East could advantage its rival India, which is a big part of the emerging geoeconomic architecture poised to take shape in the region, such as the India-Middle East-Europe corridor and the India-Israel-United Arab Emirates-United States quad. Still, the Middle East remains Islamabad’s foreign-policy comfort zone, and it will be imperative that it maintains a strong focus on the region. Many of Pakistan’s closest friends are in the Middle East, several million Pakistanis work there, and it has a mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia. Its cachet in the region stands to grow. Moving forward, Pakistan can leverage its achievements in mediation to help secure its interests. For example, in future negotiations with its Gulf donors to get more favorable loan terms, it can point to its successful efforts to stop a war that hit them hard. Pakistan must address the internal problems that have sullied its image, including political repression and terrorism. Global acclaim could shield Islamabad from some international criticism or even embolden it to accelerate steps that anger the Pakistani public, such as crackdowns on dissent. But issues at home will limit Islamabad’s policy bandwidth abroad. In the long term, sustained global influence will also require a stronger economy. Pakistan has made some headway on this front, particularly in its small technology sector. Still, it has work to do to compete: With global markets prioritizing semiconductors and clean energy infrastructure, Pakistan still emphasizes its textiles and agricultural goods. Strengthening the economy would not only bolster Pakistan’s global influence, it would also reduce its dependence on external financing and give it more space to pursue an independent foreign policy. Even before its recent successes, Islamabad exerted agency on the global stage, participating in a range of multilateral organizations, expanding long-standing partnerships, and leading multi-country military exercises. Pakistan’s mediation of the Iran deal presents it with an opportunity to expand its global footprint. But it will involve hard work, both abroad and at home. Tarique Rahman in China. Bangladeshi Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, who took office in February, is in China this week after a stop in Malaysia. His agenda for the three-day visit includes high-level engagements in Beijing and a World Economic Forum event in Dalian. That Rahman traveled to China during his first trip abroad as prime minister—and not India—is significant. Beijing is a close partner of Dhaka, and they have expanded economic and security cooperation in recent years. Meanwhile, Bangladesh-India ties have sputtered since the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in 2024. Some Bangladesh Nationalist Party leaders have suggested a desire to explore rapprochement with India; an early visit from Rahman would have sent a strong signal. In the end, Rahman’s decision to go to China instead makes sense. There is strong anti-India sentiment among the Bangladeshi public, and strong and early outreach to India would have posed political risks for the new government. Amit Shah meets U.S. ambassador. A day after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Trump

Will Pakistan’s Iran Gamble Pay Off?

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Will Pakistan’s Iran Gamble Pay Off?

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