Here’s How US-Iran War is redrawing Global Order, and Oil is Just the Beginning

DUBAI – The global energy and geopolitical circles are looking closely at UAE’s exit from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) amid Iran–US tensions and their broader regional fallout. OPEC, which was formed in the 1960s to coordinate oil production among member states, long played a central role in stabilizing global crude markets. Starting with five founding members, it later expanded into a powerful coalition controlling an estimated 36% of global crude oil production and nearly 80% of the world’s proven oil reserves. Its system relies on coordinated output limits designed to manage prices and prevent extreme volatility. UAE, being one of OPEC’s high-capacity producers, has grown increasingly frustrated with production restrictions that limit its ability to expand output. The reported decision to break away from the cartel, if confirmed, would mark one of the most significant ruptures in the organization’s modern history. Market observers suggest that such a move could dramatically reshape global oil dynamics. Freed from OPEC quotas, the UAE would theoretically be able to increase production, potentially intensifying competition in global energy markets and putting downward pressure on prices for consumers. However, analysts also warn of serious risks. A fragmented oil-producing landscape could trigger heightened price volatility, disrupt coordinated supply management, and weaken one of the world’s most influential energy alliances. There are also concerns that other member states could reconsider their own positions, potentially accelerating a broader unraveling of OPEC’s cohesion. Beyond economics, some commentators are framing this development as part of a larger geopolitical realignment unfolding in the shadow of escalating Iran–US War, suggesting that a new regional security and energy architecture may be emerging, with long-term consequences for global stability. These claims remain unverified and are being widely discussed rather