Proposal for "Timelines to what": DIAL distribution

This is a linkpost for my post on the Coefficient Giving Substack today, which bundles a few points about AI timelines that I think are important to keep in mind when making decisions. TLDR, when making decisions with respect to AI timelines, usually you should:Use distributions, not point estimates/deadlines;Use "decision importance" rather than capability thresholds;Remember to account for leverage.I coin "DIAL distribution," where DIAL stands for "decision importance adjusted for leverage," as a handy acronym for this bundle of concepts.The post itself is here. Appreciate your feedback!Discuss