We made a map of the doom debate. Here's how the breakdown works.

This is the second post in a series of posts titled "We made a map of the Doom Debate" that was created as part of the AI Safety Camp 2026 "Assumptions of the Doom Debate" project, led by Sean Herrington. The previous post introduced our tree model for mapping existential risk probability. This post will go into detail on each node of the tree. The tree can be found here, and the previous post can be found here.TL;DR:The tree consists of independent nodes, with each node being mutually exclusive with all other nodes on its level.Each node concerns a different branch of scenarios for doom.Each node consists of the likelihood of its associating scenario happening, and the likelihood of doom given that the associating scenario happens.This next post will be dedicated to some discussion of the branches of this tree in detail. Before we discuss the different branches and scenarios, it is important to keep a few assumptions in mind:Branches of the tree will be independent and mutually exclusive - that is, the branches represent differing and non-overlapping scenarios for existential catastrophe (x-risk). An increase in possibility for one branch to happen (represented within our model and our website demonstration as found in the first post) necessarily means a decrease in possibility in other branches at the same level. A 100% possibility for one branch necessarily means a 0% possibility for all other branches at the same level.Possibilities are complete - that is, the possibility for all branches at the same node add up to 100%, given the assumptions of that node and its parents.The following discussion will assume that the danger posed by AI is existential, and as such, we will discuss these scenarios with doom or existential danger as the end result. The scenarios should not change too much if a different end scenario is considered.The following is a consideration of all the nodes and subnodes in a top-to-bottom manner. For the sake of ease of presentation, we will fo