Top analyst: 71% of SpaceX’s $2 trillion value rests on AI. Grok’s numbers are ‘almost comical’ by comparison

Space X’s $1.77 trillion IPO was, by any measure, historic. Whether it was justified is a different question. Keith Snyder, a senior equities analyst at the Center for Financial Research and Analysis, says he can only match Space X’s current $2 trillion market cap by factoring in “almost comical growth for AI” — and still falling short. His estimate: x AI accounts for 71% of Space X’s valuation. “I hope most investors did not give that number weight,” he said of the S1’s AI projections. To be sure, one part of SpaceX’s rocket and satellite business is profitable and dominant — Starlink counts millions of paying subscribers globally, and bulls argue that xAI is early-stage, Grok’s integration into X gives it a distribution edge and enterprise adoption curves for AI products can inflect sharply. SpaceX did not respond to Fortune’s request for comment. The S1 gave investors something to dream on: SpaceX claimed 93% of its total addressable market would be “in AI” — a figure roughly equivalent to U.S. annual GDP, or $26.5 trillion. “This is an Elon Musk company, so Elon Musk numbers are wildly optimistic,” Snyder told Fortune, “and so the TAM number that they came out with, I have absolutely no idea how they arrived at.” To Snyder’s point, SpaceX explicitly argued in its S1 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission: “We believe we have identified the largest TAM in human history.” The company estimated $28.5 trillion in quantifiable TAM, of which $26.5 trillion was allocated for AI, “across $2.4 trillion in AI infrastructure, $760 billion in consumer subscriptions, $600 billion in digital advertising, and $22.7 trillion in enterprise applications.” The current data offers little comfort for that optimism. Of the 117 million people who currently interact with Grok via its freemium model, just 1.6% pay for the premium tier (1.9 million SuperGrok, SuperGrok Heavy and SuperG