Is Hezbollah Now More an Obligation Than an Asset to Tehran?
Key takeaways
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- Indeed, all Iran must do is allow traffic to flow through the Strait of Hormuz, and even there Tehran is working on a way to extract tolls by another name.
- Proxies remain useful to Iran, but they are no longer the centerpiece of its deterrent strategy.
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Tehran’s new leaders are riding high, with the initial memorandum of understanding offering Iran significant short-term financial relief—and the potential for far more over time—without demanding immediate concessions on its nuclear or missile programs. Indeed, all Iran must do is allow traffic to flow through the Strait of Hormuz, and even there Tehran is working on a way to extract tolls by another name. Iran’s successes, however, mask a key change: The country is now far less dependent on proxy forces like Hezbollah to intimidate its enemies.
Proxies remain useful to Iran, but they are no longer the centerpiece of its deterrent strategy. Instead, Iran is learning that threats to global energy markets and vulnerable U.S. partners can generate pressure on the United States more quickly and reliably than Hezbollah rockets or militia attacks. That does not make Hezbollah, Hamas, or the Houthis irrelevant, but it does change their role: They are now part of a broader coercive portfolio rather than Iran’s main shield. Indeed, Tehran is now riding to their rescue, rather than the other way around.