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Forecasters Predict Below-Average Hurricane Season, Advise Against Complacency

Inside Climate News · May 27, 2026, 8:55 AM

Key takeaways

  • The National Weather Service is predicting eight to 14 named storms, including three to six hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes of category 3, 4 or 5 strength, packing winds of 111 mph or greater.
  • “It just takes one,” said Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service. “Now is the time to start thinking about your hurricane preparedness.”
  • The forecasters based their predictions on an expected El Niño that is likely to develop during the season.

Why this matters: environmental and climate reporting with long-term consequences.

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The National Weather Service is predicting eight to 14 named storms, including three to six hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes of category 3, 4 or 5 strength, packing winds of 111 mph or greater. By comparison, a typical season is characterized by 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The season ends Nov. 30.

“It just takes one,” said Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service. “Now is the time to start thinking about your hurricane preparedness.”

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