Here are 3 big things to watch in the stock market this coming week

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Here are 3 big things to watch in the stock market this coming week Published Sun, Jun 21 20268:33 AM EDTUpdated 37 Min Ago Kevin Stankiewicz@in/kevin-stankiewicz-b5593466Club name Fed Ex will soon step into the earnings spotlight after a holiday-shortened week of trading brought good news on the Iran war and oil prices. Also on our radar in the week ahead is May inflation data — though caveats are needed, as we'll explain later — and earnings from memory chipmaker Micron , one of the most consequential companies in the artificial intelligence trade. 1. FedEx earnings: On Tuesday evening, FedEx reports fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results, which cover the March-to-May period. It will be a complex print for a couple of reasons. For starters, the reported results will cover both FedEx and the newly spun-out FedEx Freight, which started trading on its own on June 1. As is usually the case with spin-offs, FedEx will begin reporting restated financials that reflect the company's current makeup — a logistics solutions and parcel delivery firm. Complicating matters, FedEx is also shifting to a traditional fiscal year ending in December, ditching its current June-to-May calendar. This change, announced in January 2025 , will bring FedEx in line with rival UPS and other transportation industry players. While a reasonable decision, the combination of the calendar switch and the spin-off will make it difficult to compare FedEx's guidance against Wall Street's estimates. FedEx may provide an outlook for both the June-to-September period — four months, not the usual three in a quarter — and the seven-month transition window from June to December. Plus, the management team, led by CEO Raj Subramaniam, is known to be conservative. Got all that? The main point is that there is a ton of moving parts around FedEx's earnings Tuesday night, so the market may need some time to digest it all. The stock's first move may not be the right move. For us, we'll focus on the reported numbers — particularly profitability metrics — since they'll be easier to interpret than the guide (at least initially). Another big focus is the conference call commentary from Subramaniam on where the streamlined FedEx is headed. Any update on resuming stock buybacks will be notable, too. The crux of our thesis is that FedEx's self-help initiatives to optimize its delivery network and prioritize more profitable deliveries, such as specialized health-care parcels, will result in impressive earnings and free cash flow growth. Analysts at Deutsche Bank summed it up nicely in a June 11 note to clients. "While we admit the task of calendarizing earnings while simultaneously adjusting out a large freight segment is no doubt daunting, we don't think this should stand in the way of our appreciation that tailwinds to the core business remain intact/are accelerating," the analysts wrote. FedEx is expected to report revenues of $24.04 billion and earnings per share of $5.96, according to LSEG. Now, moving to FedEx Freight , which is the largest less-than-truckload (LTL) provider in North America. LTL services consolidate shipments from multiple customers onto a single trailer — think of these shipments as too large for standard parcel delivery (say, over 150 pounds or a few pallets of product) but not large enough for the customer to require an entire truck. We'll hear from FedEx Freight executives, led by CEO John Smith, on a Thursday night investor day. The numbers for its fourth quarter will already be out thanks to its parent company's Tuesday night report. So come Thursday, we will get color on the Q4 results and hopefully receive an update on what to expect for the rest of the year. At its April investor day, FedEx Freight projected modest top-line growth in the June-to-December transition period and sequential pressure on adjusted operating margin due to spin-off-related costs such as technology investment. With our excitement around what FedEx Freight can do now that it's operating as a standalone firm, we added to our position on Wednesday. The consensus for FedEx Freight is $2.26 billion in sales and EPS of $1.53, according to LSEG. 2. Inflation update: The Fed's preferred inflation gauge — the personal consumption expenditures price index — is out Thursday morning. The release comes after Kevin Warsh sounded more hawkish on monetary policy than some investors and Fed watchers may have expected during his first press conference as Fed Chairman last week. The PCE price index typically doesn't capture as much attention as the consumer price index. While they are similar, the Fed uses the PCE index for its 2% inflation target because it is "constructed in a way that accounts for how Americans are spending their money at a given time and more quickly adapts to changes