The World Cup’s biggest winner so far? Prediction markets, where a $5.4 billion betting frenzy has shattered previous records

Argentina and Spain are riding high after dominant World Cup performances, inching them closer to the tournament’s knockout stage. But prediction market firms like Kalshi and Polymarket are celebrating in equal measure. Just 11 days into the tournament, and with a month still remaining, this upstart sector of the betting industry, which allows users to bet on sports and a wide variety of other real-world events, has already notched billions of dollars in wagers. To assess the extent of the impact, Fortune collected data from leading prediction markets as of Thursday. Kalshi showed the largest increase: the platform reports that World Cup trading volume has reached $2.9 billion, including combination bets, and continues to rise. That figure has already exceeded other marquee sports events, including March Madness, which saw the firm bring in $2.51 billion, and this season’s Champions League, where bets totalled $685 million. Polymarket, a major rival to Kalshi in the space, has reported similarly strong activity. According to a person familiar with the company, Polymarket’s World Cup wagers have generated $2.5 billion in cumulative trading volume since launching last July, making it one of the largest single markets in the platform’s history. Over the same period, soccer-related trading on its global decentralized finance platform has exceeded $5 billion. Robinhood, for its part, shared World Cup prediction market activity by citing contract volume. A spokesperson told Fortune that Rothera, a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse operated through the platform’s joint venture with Susquehanna International Group, has executed more than 500 million contracts since the start of the month, including 400 million since June 11, the tournament’s opening day. Prediction markets are not just having a World Cup “moment.” Instead, this tournament has helped confirm their rise in the United States, where they are increasingly used as an accessible way to bet on just about eve