AI Futurism Reading List

We at Redwood recently ran a strategy fellowship through Astra. As part of this, we ran a reading group for our fellows on some of the topics that we think are important for thinking about AI futurism (key dynamics in AI development, existential risk from AI, and approaches to mitigating risk). This post contains the reading list we used.The selection reflects my opinionated views of the field, focuses particularly on topics we happen to focus on at Redwood, and doesn’t aim to be comprehensive.I selected readings that I thought described conceptual frames and hypotheses in AI futurism that are regularly used by me and my coworkers. I think it is a good exercise to consider whether you agree with their theses and ways in which their predictions have fared well or badly in light of recent evidence.If you have suggestions for this reading list, please let me know.How to use this reading listThis reading list has a core and extended section.Core readings are organized into 4 weeks. Each week covers <8 hours of foundational context on a topic.Topics are chosen for (1) general importance for AI risk threat modeling and/or (2) relevance to work at Redwood Research.We recommend that you prioritize “recommended” readings before “optional”.We recommend that you prioritize starred readings if you only have ~1 hour.Extended readings are for optional reference.“Key questions” and “exercises” are recommended for discussion groups.Core readingsWeek 1: Timelines / takeoff modelingKey questions:What are key milestones to track in AI development?When will powerful AIs[1] arrive? (Timelines)How quickly will powerful AIs arrive? (Takeoff speeds)What do existing models say about the above questions? What are key assumptions/parameters in these models?How powerful are AIs currently?What implications do timelines/takeoff modeling have on AI strategy?Recommended*Three Types of Intelligence Explosion (~30 min, audio option)A breakdown of AI capability levels focused on AI R&D labor accelera