The False Promise of U.S.-China Stability

JONATHAN A. CZIN is Michael H. Armacost Chair in Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution’s China Center and co-host of the podcast The Beijing Brief. He was Director for China at the National Security Council from 2021 to 2023 and previously served as a member of the Senior Analytic Service at the Central Intelligence Agency.

Washington Will Come to Regret Its Stalemate With Beijing. An uneasy quiescence has come to define U.S.-Chinese relations during U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term. Although both governments are calling it “constructive strategic stability,” U.S.-Chinese relations have been so tenuous and shallow, so lacking in ambition or any affirmative vision from either side, that it seems more apt to describe the current moment as a stalemate defined by “mutually assured disruption.” Going forward, the crucial question for both sides will be who is making better use of this interregnum.

For its part, Beijing sees stalemate as a victory—a sign that China has positioned itself as Washington’s peer—and as a vindication of the policies it put in place after the first Trump administration, which were designed to let it play both offense and defense with the United States. Ever since Trump met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea last November, Beijing’s strategy has been to purchase time, space, and relief from U.S. pressure at the lowest price point possible so that it can fortify itself for the next round. When they met again in Beijing in May, for instance, the pageantry and respect Xi orchestrated for Trump, paired with some modest commercial deals, was a small price to pay for that latitude. China’s status as the world’s second superpower is also, paradoxically, abetting its ability to accrue advantages without taking on the responsibilities—and expenses—that have sapped both the U.S. government of materiel and the American population’s appetite for big and bold foreign policy initiatives.