Finding the Mole: Bayesianism is Hard

I first encountered Less Wrong a couple months ago, and since then I've been a regular reader of posts here, including parts of the Sequences. Bayesianism is a major topic in them, and I wanted to try it myself. An ideal candidate was the Flemish TV show 'The Mole' (Dutch: 'De Mol').In this post, I want to share my methodology & results, but I also want to ask for advice. I consider my results to be mixed at best, and I would really like tips & feedback so I can do better next time.If any fellow Flemish are reading this who also watched 'The Mole', I'm curious to hear whether you got it right and how you went about it.Concept of the TV showThe TV show 'The Mole' is very popular in Flanders[1]. The concept goes as follows: ten normal people ("candidates") travel somewhere and have to complete tasks to earn money for the group. One of them is the mole, who tries to make the tasks fail without people noticing that they are the mole. At the end of each episode, the candidate who knows least about the mole's identity is eliminated.As a viewer, you also do not know who the mole is, and can have great fun figuring it out (you can't make money from being right though, betting on it is illegal). This is my eleventh year watching the show, but I am only slightly better than random at figuring out who the mole is. In the last episode three candidates are left, and I get it right around 30% to 50% of the time.Here are some more features of the TV show you should know before I get to the Bayesianism:The mole is in league with the show's producers, and has foreknowledge of everything that will happenSometimes, candidates can choose between money for the group and a personal advantage that makes them less likely to be eliminated.Some normal candidates intentionally appear suspicious, because if other people (wrongly) assume they are the mole, they themselves are less likely to be eliminated.The candidates often have to divide themselves into groups that will do different tasks.To m