Complications in the US-Iran peace deal

THE continuity of negotiations between Iran and the US generates optimism about a permanent peace. However, significant differences remain between Tehran and Washington, which hinder the formulation of a peace deal. Besides, Israel has been struggling to spoil the peace process in the region. Notwithstanding President Donald Trump’s announcement to end the blockade, the US forces are obstructing the movement of Iranian commercial vessels. They had disabled five commercial vessels and redirected 116 to fully enforce the blockade. Simultaneously, Iran is asserting its control over the Strait of Hormuz by issuing warnings to commercial and military vessels to comply with regulations. Moreover, both sides are maintaining threatening rhetoric to prove that they are prepared for a war. The leadership’s war rhetoric and minor skirmishes between Iranian and American forces raise concerns about the probability of escalation and the end of the ceasefire. President Trump is struggling to prove that he was successful in coercing the Iranian leadership to accept his terms and conditions for a permanent peace in the Middle East. Conversely, the Iranian negotiators seem in no hurry despite Tehran’s urgent need for economic breathing space and relief from the mounting pressure of the blockade. They understand Trump’s limitations and increasing opposition to the US-Israeli war on Iran within the United States. It was reported that war costs US consumers nearly $60bn since the conflict began on February 28. Moreover, Republicans are worried about the mid-term elections scheduled for November 2026. Therefore, Trump seeks a deal that saves his party’s majority in Congress. The US Defense Secretary Pete echoed Trump’s warning on May 30, 2026. He said Washington was “more than capable” of restarting the war if a satisfactory deal is not reached. Indeed, the US is militarily capable of restarting a war, but there is no guarantee that it will win the asymmetrical warfare with Iran. The res