Are Europe’s heat waves deadlier than American gun violence? Kind of—and one of the hottest summers on record is making it worse

You’ve probably seen it by now. A chart, passed around on social media with the kind of grim satisfaction that only statistics can produce: more Europeans die each year from summer heat than Americans die from gun violence. The implication cuts both ways—Europe’s lack of air conditioning is deadlier than America’s lack of gun control—and it has been lighting up feeds across the political spectrum ever since. Turns out, it’s mostly true. And this summer is making it impossible to ignore. This semi-true graph is picking up steam online.Hannah Ritchie’s By the Numbers Substack Europe is currently in the grip of its second major heat emergency in two months. The UK Met Office and the World Meteorological Organization have put an 86% probability on at least one year between now and 2030 breaking 2024’s record as the hottest ever measured—with 2027 the most likely candidate as a developing El Niño peaks. In the meantime, 2026 is already tracking as one of the four warmest years on record, the fourth consecutive year to exceed 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels. It’ll be a hot summer for sure Temperatures in parts of France have topped 108°F, while Spain logged highs above 113°F in the south. The UK, Germany, France, Spain, Switzerland, and Luxembourg have all issued the highest-level red heat alerts. At least 40 people have drowned since last Thursday, with French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu publicly linking the deaths to soaring temperatures as people wade into unsupervised rivers and lakes seeking relief. So far, at least 18 more have died from direct heat causes in France alone—among them two toddlers found unresponsive in a hot car in the southeastern town of Carpentras, where temperatures exceeded 102°F that afternoon, and three elderly people between the ages of 80 and 95 who died near Bordeaux over the weekend. And summer has barely started. A developing El Niño is reshaping atmospheric circulation across Europe, with s